At Future Power we plan to address these questions by bringing together a group of distinguished speakers with a diverse range of views, representing a wide spectrum of power generation options, as well as practitioners in the field of "futures studies", with the aim of encouraging informed debate and the sharing of knowledge and expertise.
The goal: to look at practical experience gained in the area of futures studies and how we can use it to set about identifying runners and potential winners in the rapidly evolving power generation technology field.
The target audience: managers and strategic planners in the power generation business, including generating companies and equipment suppliers, project developers, investors, policymakers and all those interested in power sector market trends.
The topics: energy modelling, forecasting and futurology; successes and failures in the prediction business; strategic roadmapping, tools and practicalities; utility, supplier and project decision-making case studies; identifying impending energy gaps and appropriate responses; optimising the fuel mix for the longer term; prioritising research and development. We hope you will join us for these two days and be both informed and challenged as we look to the future!
"For tomorrow belongs to the people who prepare for it today."
Tuesday 4th November 2009
0840-0925 Registration & Refreshments- Exhibits open
0925-0930 Chairman's welcome.
James Varley, Managing editor,
Modern Power Systems magazine, UK
STRATEGIES, UTILITIES AND THE FUTURE
0930-0950 Power generation in the EU energy and climate change strategy.
Pierre Dechamps, Adviser for Energy and Climate Change, EU Commission – Bureau of European Policy Advisers, Belgium.
The paper presents the essential action lines of the strategy put in place by the European Commission to help the large-scale deployment of fossil fuel based power generation plants. This is based among other things on more than 10 years of research funding in CO2 capture and storage and clean coal technologies under the successive Framework programmes. The last year has seen impressive developments in trying to overcome the technical and non-technical barriers on the way to this deployment. The Commission has issued a draft Directive for CO2 geological storage, to provide a clear, consistent and stable legal and regulatory framework for the technology. The Commission has also issued a Communication outlining its strategy to support the further development and the demonstration of large scale zero emission power generation plants. From a research perspective, CO2 capture and storage, as well as clean coal technologies, are two of the priority activities in the energy theme of the 7th Framework Programme. The Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan) also lists CO2 capture and storage – zero emission power generation – as one of the challenges for the next decades, and proposes the establishment of a European Industrial Initiative in this technology. All of this should enable the technology to be commercially deployed right after 2020, to help Europe meet its long-term objectives in terms of climate protection, and reconcile them with competitiveness and energy security, in the framework set by the energy and climate change package issued on the 23rd of January 2008.
0950-1010 Scottish & Southern’s strategy for future technologies.
Ian Marchant, CEO, Scottish & Southern, UK .
This paper will cover the following topics:
-Why production and consumption of energy will change dramatically
-Why investment in mature, maturing and emerging technologies is the right mix.
-Why SSE is different from other investors in emerging technologies
-Why technologies will stop 'emerging' and become 'mainstream'
Carbon capture and storage from vision to reality.
Lars Stromberg, Vice President of Research & Development
This paper will discuss whether coal fired power production is necessary, and look at the technologies and strategies that are available to make it both workable and acceptable in the future.
The future of utilities.
Jens Grabow,Global Power & Utilities Analyst,
Ernst & Young AG, Germany.
No one can predict the future. The only thing that we can be sure of is that the future of the power and utilities industry will be very different from today. Uncertainty on this scale means that utilities need to be agile if they are to manage the organizational change needed to build an effective route to the future.
For those wishing to operate as a successful utility in the future, agility means pulling the right levers at the right time to exploit the opportunities and minimize the considerable threats to profitable growth that the sector faces.
The question for those wishing to operate as a successful utility in the future: What makes a sensible decision today still being a good decision tomorrow?
THE POTENTIAL OF DISTRIBUTED GENERATION
Walt Patterson Associate Fellow,
Chatham House, UK.
World electricity is still based on a technical model more than a century old - obsolete, inefficient and dangerous. We now have the opportunity to bring electricity into the twenty-first century. Innovative technologies and innovative system design now offer cleaner, more robust and more reliable electricity services. But legacy systems, legacy institutions and legacy mindsets make upgrading electricity a daunting challenge.
Non-automotive applications of fuel cell systems.
Robin Francis, CEO, Voller Energy Group PLC, UK.
Fuel cell systems offer the potential to provide quieter, cleaner, more energy efficient and economic power when compared to conventional distributed power systems. Voller energy has developed a commercial 1kW fuel cell systemwhich operates from LPG fuel and is designed to replace generator sets in a range of off-grid applications. Such systems
offer substantial user and environmental benefits (namely low noise, vibration and emissions) together with the potential for significant through life cost savings as a result of their lower fuel usage and service requirements.
This paper explores the opportunities for fuel cell systems to be used in several key application areas with particular emphasis on off-grid and remote power opportunities. Challenges and barriers to the widespread adoption of fuel cell systems will also be highlighted along with possible routes to address these issues. General perspectives on the future of distributed power
will also be given.
Fuel cell micro CHP
Jeremy Harrison, Innovation consultant
E.ON Engineering, UK
Micro CHP has been consistently identified by the UK Government and their advisers as a key Microgeneration technology; it contributes to all four goals of the UK government’s energy policy and independent reports confirm that micro CHP is the most cost effective means of tackling fuel poverty, of reducing carbon emissions and of supporting the implementation of other renewable generation capacity. It also enhances the performance of distribution networks and reduces operating and capital costs. Initial micro CHP products currently installed in UK homes have demonstrated significant economic and environmental benefits, particularly for larger homes. However, fuel cell technology promises to deliver higher electrical efficiencies with consequent enhanced value for the increased power produced. They may also be able to more effectively serve a larger proportion of the domestic market by meeting the needs of smaller homes.
However, there remain technical and regulatory challenges unique to fuel cells, which must be overcome if this valuable technology is to fulfil its potential within the timeframe that fossil-fuelled micro CHP continues to have a role to play in the overall energy supply system. This paper will outline the challenges and propose solutions as well as describing progress to date with fuel cell micro CHP.
1230-1245 The benefits of solid oxide fuel cells for residential combined heat and power systems.
CEO, Ceramic Fuel Cells (Europe) Ltd, UK.
Residential CHP (Combined Heat and Power) systems are being developed as they provide a low carbon solution for home energy and can be easily integrated into existing hot water and heating systems. There are several technologies that can provide solutions to this market and all have complementary benefits. This paper will give an overview of fuel cells and CHP systems and then focus on the unique benefits that Solid Oxide Fuel Cells offer and the value that can be delivered to home owners and Energy Utilities in the emerging distributed energy market.
RENEWABLES IN THE PORTFOLIO, WIND, MARINE &HYDRO
Reliable power supply in an age of rapidly increasing distributed generation capacity.
Jacob Klimstra, Senior Energy and Engine Specialist
Wärtsilä Power Plants,The Netherlands.
A reliable and affordable electricity supply is required to sustain our wellbeing and wealth level. Yet, fossil fuels needed for conventional power stations are getting scarcer and more expensive. This together with focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions is stimulating the introduction of renewable resources based on wind and solar radiation. The intermittent character of most renewables sources makes that back-up capacity with rapid response, high fuel flexibility and low costs is needed. Generators driven by reciprocating engines offer the required dynamics, fuel flexibility and efficiency at low costs. Moreover, their reliability has been proven in many applications.
Risk analysis and portfolio effects of renewable energy portfolios.
Andreas Weise,Director Business Development,
Energy Division, Lahmeyer International GmbH, Germany
The Supergrid…. The technology to realise the secure connection of upto 33GW of UK offshore wind
Peter R Jones, Head of Technology,
Substantial challenges now exist in connecting upto 33GW of offshore wind to the UK transmission system. A much greater dependence on wind coupled with locations far out in the North Sea and other UK coastal waters makes the idea of a Supergrid system around the coast of the UK a more viable proposal. Extending this Supergrid to the rest of Europe further improves UK energy security and continuity. This paper will demonstrate that HVDC technology exists now to build such as system.
Wind technology, looking to the 4th generation.
Gustav R. Grob, Fellow of the Energy Institute, London,
President, International Clean Energy Consortium ICEC Holding AG;
Wind is the oldest technically exploited energy resource, reaching back to ancient times thousands of years ago, originally used to move Chinese, Viking and Greek sail ships, grind cereals and pump water. The use for electricity generation is known since the invention of DC and AC generators. Gearless turbines and advanced tower construction technologies help to reduce the cost of manufacturing, transport, erection and maintenance, and are extending the life considerably up to 30 years and more.The 4th wind power generation is virtually maintenance free, if there are no abrasive climatic conditions like sand storms and salty water breezes. The electricity production cost in the optimal 1 – 3 MW power range can be much below grid electricity rates in favourable wind situations.The matrix shows the characteristics of the four successive wind power generations with approximate cost in favourable locations without excessive road access and grid connection cost. Gear problems limited the life of conventional 2nd and 3rd generation wind turbines and steel towers caused high transportation cost due to road profile problems from the few possible manufacturing locations. The 4th STARWIND generation saves about 40 % copper and 90 % steel, which both became very expensive.
Seagen - The world's first commercial scale tidal energy turbine deployed in Northern Ireland.
Martin Wright, Managing Director,
Marine Current Turbines Ltd, UK
Upgrade of a 4.4. MW Hydroelectric facility with zero-head hydrokinetic turbines placed in the tailrace
Mark Stover,Vice president, governmental & external affairs
Hydro Green Energy, LLC, USA.
In 2006, the City of Hastings, Minnesota, USA embarked on what its Public Works Director Tom Montgomery called a “big science experiment.” By partnering with Hydro Green Energy, LLC, a Houston-based hydrokinetic power technology integrator and project developer, the City of Hastings in October 2008 will deploy what will be the first commercially-operational, federally-licensed hydrokinetic power project in the United States. This unique application of Hydro Green Energy’s patented hydrokinetic technology at an existing hydropower project will increase the City’s clean energy output by nearly six percent, and is a technology application that has worldwide use. 1700-1715
Chairman's closing remarks
James Varley, Managing editor,
Modern Power Systems magazine, UK
Close day one
Wednesday 5th November 2009
0830-0910 Registration & Refreshments- Exhibits open
Chairman's opening remarks
James Varley, Managing editor,
Modern Power Systems magazine, UK SOLAR'S BRIGHTER FUTURE
0915-0935 Solar Islands
Thomas Hinderling, CEO,
CSEM - Centre Suisse d'Electronique et de Microtechnique SA,
Solar Island is a new concept which allows providing solar energy (electricity or fuel) in very large quantities and at competitive costs. A Solar Island, deployed on high sea, is an artificial island of potentially large dimensions (several kilometers in diameter), almost immune to waves and wind, carrying solar panels, and aligning them to the sun by simply rotating the island. The island is floating on a cushion of air; no mechanical constructions are needed to support it. It can also be installed on land, the outer ting floating in a circular channel. A prototype is currently being built in the desert in the U.A.E.
Concentrating Solar Power—Meeting the Increasing Energy Demand of the Water- Use Cycle in the Middle East and North Africa
MENA Cleantech GmbH, Germany
The water-use cycle in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has one of the highest energy intensities worldwide. In part due to having the biggest water deficit on our planet.To cover this deficit, MENA countries have resorted to energy-intensive measures like seawater desalination and the pumping of declining groundwater aquifers from greater and greater depths. Large water supply and conveyance systems are also used to transfer water to population centers throughout the MENA, further adding to the energy intensity of the region’s water-use cycle.
An expanding population coupled with the unpredictable impact of changing climatic conditions is expected to worsen the MENA’s critical water situation. The DLR forecasts a tripling of the MENA’s water deficit to 150 Billion Cubic Meters by 2050. To meet future water demand, MENA countries will have to increase their end-use water efficiency while increasing their reliance on desalinated and recycled water and building more conveyance systems to channel desalinated water from coastlines to cities inland.
These eventualities promise to increase the energy intensity of the MENA’s water-use cycle, resulting in higher domestic consumption of the region’s energy exports and primary source of income. Consequently, MENA countries have proposed nuclear energy as an alternative. However, the lack of the required infrastructure and a heightened risk of proliferation could delay such projects. This paper will present the potential of concentrating solar power, to offer an indigenous fuel source that can ensure the reliable supply of clean and renewable water to the countries of the MENA. The region already possesses the mechanical and electricalengineering skills required to capitalise on its massive solar potential.
Clean power from deserts.
Using the simple and proven technology of concentrating solar power (CSP), less than 1% of the world's deserts could generate as much electricity as the world is now using. With low-loss "HVDC" transmission lines, it is feasible and economic to transmit solar electricity for 3000 km or more. It has been calculated that 90% of the world's population lives within 2700 km of a desert and could be supplied with clean electricity from there. Other potential benefits include the creation of fresh water by desalination of sea water using the waste heat from CSP plants, and the use of the shaded areas under solar collectors for many purposes including horticulture. This “DESERTEC” concept has been developed by the “TREC” international network of scientists and engineers.
COAL POWER REVISITED
1100-1120 Underground coal gasification: A massive clean energy resource.
Kenneth J. Fergusson, Senior adviser
UCGP - Underground coal gasification partnership, UK
In today's high level of environmental awareness, the processes of mining, transporting and burning coal are all viewed by many as dirty. These are cited as reasons for opposing ongoing dependence on the abundant global coal resource. There are means of containing the environmental risks from this conventional use of coal, but the arguments are going to continue to hinder new coal projects. In contrast, the purpose of this paper is to highlight a technology which can give access to the energy of coal, by underground coal gasification, (UCG), which avoids the need for mining and transportaton of the coal, and allows it to be used cleanly for power generation, or for the production of hydrogen and other chemicals, or synthetic liquid fuels. The history and current rapidly-expanding development of UCG will be described, against the background of cost comparisons with natural gas. The huge resource available globally, and even moreso in UK, will be reported, to support the case for UCG to be included as a major component of future energy policy.
MaGIC – a new generation IGCC hybrid.
Alex Wormser, President
Wormser Energy Solutions,Inc.USA.
MaGIC is a new-generation of hybrid IGCC. It uses an air-free environment to extract and preserve the coal’s volatiles, followed by mild gasification of the coal itself. Using warm gas cleanup, MaGIC preserves the volatile matter and its heating potential, which doubles the heating value of conventional airblown syngas. MaGIC’s gasifier equipment is much smaller than conventional gasifiers. Uniquely among IGGCs, the cost of electricity produced is lower than that of either PC or NGCC. MaGIC retrofits existing PC plants (using them as its HRSG), and will lower the CO2 emissions from the existing coal fleet.
While no full-scale unit has been built, the new system is comprised of a new combination of demonstrated technologies. The new technology promises to recast the debate surrounding the use of coal for power generation, in both developed and developing countries.
IGSC – 100% CO2 capture with increased power output.
John Griffiths, Senior Consultant
Jacobs Consultancy UK Ltd
A NEW NUCLEAR ERA?
Will the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor project ever happen?
Tom Ferreira, Communications consultant,
PBMR, South Africa.
Following many trials and tribulations over many years, the South African PBMR team is currently preparing for the building of a commercial scale power reactor project at Koeberg near Cape Town and a pebble fuel plant at Pelindaba in the North-West Province. If proven successful, the intention is to build up to 30 reactors in South Africa, after which the technology will be deployed overseas.
The PBMR company now boasts one of the largest nuclear reactor design teams in the world. In addition to the core team of some seven hundred people at the PBMR head-office, more than a thousand people at universities, private companies and research institutes are involved with the project.
PBMR’s current investors, the South African utility Eskom, the Industrial Development Corporation of South African and the US nuclear company Westinghouse, share the vision of small, standardised, inherently safe, modular reactors as one of the best carbon-free alternatives for new power generation capacity around the world. Tom Ferreira, Communications Consultant for the PBMR company, will give an update on South Africa’s progress toward developing and commercializing the PBMR technology.
1400-1420 South Africa’s commitment to new nuclear power.
Edward Kee,Vice president,
CRA International, USA
Eskom has a plan to build 20,000 MW of new nuclear capacity by 2025. The options were to adopt a fleet approach similar to that of France in 1975 or to adopt a sequential purchase approach and gain fleet benefits by coordinating the sequential purchase process.
This paper will cover the Eskom decision process, with particular focus on the issues related to nuclear fleet strategies.
1420-1440 The future of fusion power.
David Ward, Power Plants and Energy Group Leader,
EURATOM/UKAEA Fusion Association, UK.
As one of very few options for large-scale, non-carbon future supply of energy, fusion has the potential to make an important contribution to sustained energy supplies. Fusion’s advantages of large fuel reserves, low atmospheric emissions and high levels of safety make it an important consideration in future energy strategies. This talk will highlight how fusion power could play a role in meeting future demands for low-carbon energy within a 40-year timescale, how it would fit into future energy markets, and will review the economic and political barriers that need to be addressed.
DEVELOPMENTS IN STORE
Energy Island – An innovative concept for large-scale energy storage.
Frits Verheij, Managing Principal Future Energy Systems
KEMA, The Netherlands
Electricity storage offers considerable added value for the energy sector, particularly if this is combined with wind-powered generating capacity on a large scale. It increases the technical reliability of the power supply, stabilizes the cost of electricity and helps to reduce GHG emissions. The Energy Island concept is as follows. An artificial island would be created, incorporating a pumped energy storage facility that reverses the principle on which a conventional PAC facility works. When the supply of electricity exceeds demand (e.g. high wind speeds at night), seawater is pumped out of the lake enclosed within the island’s perimeter dyke, into the surrounding sea; when demand exceeds supply (during the daytime), seawater is allowed to flow back in, driving a generator. This way there is less need to shut down wind farms, and there is no or less need to deploy additional peak-load plants.
By order of Dutch based utilities and TSO TenneT the energy consulting company KEMA and engineering firm Bureau Lievense have been developing a preliminary design of the Energy Island – off the Dutch coast. The conclusion is that usage of the power by a storage facility is not only technically feasible; it is also economically viable. The benefits of creating such an island would be long-lasting and not confined to the energy sector: it could provide other energy projects, harbor facilities, nature values, and tourism opportunities.
Plug in hybrid electric vehicles: a route to energy storage?
This paper will look at a new way of storing the unstable electricity output from wind turbines,through plug in hybrid electric vehicles which are typically charged during the night, when the exploitation of power generation is low.
FUTUROLOGY AND ROADMAPPING
Director of programmes
The World Future Council,UK
Roadmapping as a guide to the future:looking to 2050.
Dolf Gielen, IEA, France (to be confirmed)
Chairman's closing remarks & Champagne Prize Draw
James Varley, Managing editor,
Modern Power Systems magazine, UK
End of conference
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